A Win-Win-Win for Carolina, Colorado, and Chicago?

Special for PuckPedia by Aaron Schwartz, who served as the Carolina Hurricanes' Director of Hockey Operations from 2021 to 2025, managing salary cap strategy, contract negotiations, arbitration, scouting, and AHL affiliate staffing. He played a key role in building the 2022 Calder Cup-winning Chicago Wolves, bringing in players like Jalen Chatfield and Stefan Noesen. Before joining the Hurricanes, Schwartz was a litigation and arbitration attorney in Chicago and previously worked as a player agent alongside NHLPA-certified agent Peter Wallen.

The NHL's Blockbuster Trade: A Win-Win-Win for Carolina, Colorado, and Chicago?

The biggest blockbuster of this NHL season—the three-way trade between Carolina, Chicago, and Colorado—wasn’t just a headline grabber. It was a masterclass in responsible asset management by all three teams.

To recap, Carolina acquired forwards Mikko Rantanen from Colorado (50% retained by Chicago) and Taylor Hall from Chicago in exchange for forwards Jack Drury and Martin Necas, who headed to Colorado. Along with Necas and Drury, Carolina sent Colorado a 2025 2nd round pick and a 2026 4th round pick and traded back to Chicago its own 2025 3rd round pick—a pick that will ostensibly be akin to a late 2nd round pick.

A granular dive into each piece of the trade reveals, to me, a win-win-win for the teams involved. Could one or more of the parties have obtained a better return? Sure, there’s always the possibility that some last-minute trade deadline spike in demand arose for one or more of the players involved. There’s also the possibility of injuries to players and no return. A partner at a law firm I worked for once told me that a deal is struck when both sides or in this case all sides, walk away unhappy.

Carolina’s Win: An Elite Forward at a Bargain

Let’s start with Carolina. They needed more offense, specifically, an elite-caliber forward who could wrangle control of a game. Carolina’s game is built on the forecheck, recovering pucks, speed, and defensive relentlessness. Carolina tends to work way too hard for its offense and a player like Rantanen should help alleviate that burden in the regular season and the playoffs. Rantanen should also be able to help Carolina’s struggling power play. Give credit to Carolina for once again acquiring elite-level talent without giving up a 1st round pick (e.g., last year’s acquisition of Jake Guentzel).

Now, Necas was not going to be a long-term fit in Carolina. He would tell you that, and so would his father. He is an extremely skilled playmaker who possesses speed and an excellent release. However, he didn’t exactly fit the Hurricanes’ mold away from the puck. In my opinion, he was prone to high offensive-zone turnovers and tended to try to do too much in certain situations. Nonetheless, his value increased this offseason as he finally showed he could contribute in the playoffs (9 points in 11 games) and began the current season on an incredible hot streak. By January, it was a no-brainer for Colorado to buy in on the potential upside of Necas, especially in Colorado’s system and with the players that would surround him, e.g., Nathan MacKinnon. Apparently not willing to commit to Rantanen’s demands and with other costly extensions to be dealt with, Colorado made a play for Necas - a wise move for a skilled talent that is cost-controlled at a $6.5 million AAV through the conclusion of the 2025-26 season. 

In Carolina, we designed Necas’ deal to combat an impending and always uncertain arbitration hearing, even though the deal would “walk” Necas to UFA. With a two-year structure, we accomplished two things: (1) we avoided being leveraged with an offer sheet in the summer of 2025 that could have prevented Necas from being traded in the last year before reaching UFA (a player cannot be traded for one-year after a matched offer sheet); and (2) we hedged this season’s performance by locking him in for two years. To better explain: had an offer sheet been signed this coming summer (after a 1-year deal last summer), Carolina would have been forced to make a decision: (a) exercise the right of first refusal and walk the player to UFA with no return, or (b) accept the terms of an offer sheet. Carolina had been the target of an offer sheet before, so it wasn’t too far-fetched to imagine a world where we were faced with an offer sheet scenario.

We did have some cooperation from the agent because he rightfully understood that the deal needed to be “team-friendly” to be tradeable. In my opinion, it didn’t make much sense to sign him to a long-term deal—if the goal was to trade him—unless it was on terms that we (or another team) couldn’t refuse. I thought it would be more efficient to give an acquiring team a clean slate in negotiating a long-term deal with their own preferred structure and term. In the end, the short-term deal gave much-needed flexibility to an acquiring team and the opportunity to assess before a long-term negotiation.

As for Hall, Carolina made a risk-averse gamble on being able to get the most out of him. As they have with other struggling players before, they see Hall’s residual value as an opportunity. Give credit to Rod Brind’Amour here for his unrivaled ability to squeeze every ounce of effort and talent out of his players, which makes it much easier for Carolina to gamble on players like Hall. 

Colorado’s Smart Bet: Youth, Depth, and Cap Flexibility

Colorado was wise in recognizing the possibility of more potential for Necas in their system with the shackles off, and they will have plenty of time to assess and strategize before an extension can be signed. Carolina gets a much-needed elite forward in Rantanen in exchange for two roster players, one of whom Carolina was going to inevitably lose in free agency (Necas) and the other (Drury), who Carolina likely sees as more easily replaceable.

Indeed, Colorado has always seen a lot of potential in Drury and had interest in him. He is a young center who blocks shots, contributes in the faceoff dots, kills penalties, will occasionally drop the gloves, and has won at just about every level he’s played at. Colorado needed more depth, and they did their homework—Kevin McDonald and his staff are a well-oiled machine. It was probably a little easier for Carolina to part with Drury (who was mainly playing 4th line minutes) when players like Jost, Suzuki, Nadeau, Unger-Sorum, and even Jaaska are knocking on the door. So, Colorado solved their temporary and uncertain cap problem, got a little bit younger and deeper, and bought some perceived upside in Necas and Drury.

Chicago’s Calculated subtraction: A logical, if unpopular, decision

Now, I see a lot of heat being thrown at Chicago for the return on Hall. However, I watched a lot of Chicago’s games this season, in person and on video, and Hall is not what he used to be. He seems to have lost a step, was sloppy with the puck at times, was unproductive, and was even a healthy scratch. To think that Chicago was going to fetch a 3rd round pick (or higher) for Hall on a $6M AAV deal is, to me, fantasy—even with retention.  

Chicago was able to shed the entirety of Hall’s $6M AAV, acquire an early 3rd round pick (of which they control their destiny) and have a retention spot left to utilize on a player who will inevitably gather a better return than Hall. Nobody was taking Hall at full value for any kind of worthwhile return, so the risk was all on Chicago if they couldn’t move the player or, worse yet, if the player got injured. 

Let’s also remember that Chicago didn’t give up much to get Hall (they received the rights to Nick Foligno and sent Ian Mitchell and Alec Regula to Boston). At the time, Chicago probably envisioned Hall serving in an important leadership role for their young prospects and that they could gather a decent return, at some point. In that trade, Chicago also bought themselves their captain in Foligno and utilized some residual value in Hall (even if to reach the cap floor). Plus, let’s not forget that Chicago is operating without a local television deal, so cash flow is inevitably part of the equation here. 

Chicago shipped out Hall’s $6M contract (~$2.5M prorated) retained 50% of Rantanen’s $9.25M contract (~$1.975M prorated) in exchange for their own 3rd round pick. Not only did Chicago save ~$500k in cash, but they also opened a crucial roster spot for players knocking on the door in Rockford—a roster spot they’ve now used to recall Landon Slaggert. Lastly, I want to point out that it is uncommon for a brokering team to know which player they are retaining on until the deal is completed. Sure, a savvy executive can sometimes do some simple algebra and solve the equation, but it is very likely Chicago was unaware that they agreed to retain on Rantanen until the deal was done. It is commonplace to shop for brokers with only with the amount of cap and cash, and no mention of a player’s name.

Assuredly, Eric Tulsky and Tyler Dellow (formerly head of analytics for the New Jersey Devils) both have an affinity for Hall in their analytic assessments. I wasn’t privy to any conversations, and I am doing some guesswork here, but the one critique I have of Chicago’s part is that they could have recognized that Carolina might actually have wanted the player and wasn’t just kindly offering to take him off their hands. With Carolina’s well-managed cap, they are usually able to take a chance on a player if they see as a fit—especially if the player was at one time an analytics standout. It’s possible Chicago did recognize Carolina’s interest but nonetheless wanted to depart with Hall, and from what I gather, it appears as though Hall was eager to leave Chicago. You can’t knock a front-office for occasionally doing the right thing for a player, even at the team’s expense. Nonetheless, if Hall doesn’t pan out in Carolina it is not going to drastically change the dynamics of the trade. What will drastically alter the dynamics of the trade, however, is if Carolina can’t sign Rantanen to an extension.

The Verdict

From Carolina’s perspective, I still reserve judgment on the trade’s true success unless and until an extension for Rantanen is signed. I strongly doubt that Carolina will have given up the assets they did last year to acquire Guentzel (and lose him in free agency) to do it yet again, this year, with Rantanen. I have no doubt they are and were aware of Rantanen’s expectations and are willing to come to the table. However, they wisely gave themselves an “out” if they have any inclination that the player won’t sign an extension. If they feel a deal cannot be reached by trade deadline, they can easily flip the player (and retain one more time) to recoup some of their capital. 

Right now, I’d suspect Carolina is beating down the door to get a deal done while Rantanen is taking his time to assess whether he wants to sign long term in Carolina. Interestingly, Rantanen is represented by Octagon, the same agency that represented Guentzel. So, there is familiarity there between the parties which adds an interesting wrinkle to the equation. Meanwhile, if Rantanen reaches free agency, I wouldn’t count Colorado out of the mix. Maybe Colorado envisioned a scenario where they recoup the centerpiece of the trade in the free agency.

In the end, Colorado is a bit younger, deeper, and in a better, more flexible cap situation moving forward. Colorado hopes that Necas and Drury can attempt to fill the shoes of Rantanen, but only time will tell. Carolina landed their long-coveted game-breaker in Rantanen while rolling the dice on Hall, hoping to squeeze some final drops of value from the former Hart Trophy winner. 

Chicago cleared a roster spot, paving the way for their prospects to take the next step, they shed some cash, and received a useful early 3rd round pick. 

I don’t think any of these three teams are done making moves for the season, so we have yet to see the completion of these puzzles.

Aaron Schwartz served as the Carolina Hurricanes' Director of Hockey Operations from 2021 to 2025, managing salary cap strategy, contract negotiations, arbitration, scouting, and AHL affiliate staffing. He played a key role in building the 2022 Calder Cup-winning Chicago Wolves, bringing in players like Jalen Chatfield and Stefan Noesen. Before joining the Hurricanes, Schwartz was a litigation and arbitration attorney in Chicago and previously worked as a player agent alongside NHLPA-certified agent Peter Wallen.