Dallas Stars 24-25 Season Preview

Dallas Stars
Central Division

2023-24 Recap
Record: 52-21-9
Over/Under: 42-39-1
Home Favorite: 26-13
Home Dog: 0-0
Road Favorite: 21-9
Road Dog: 4-6
Win Score 4 or more: 37 of 52
Lose Give Up 4 or more: 20 of 30
Puck Line Wins: 28 of 52
Puck Line Losses: 17 of 30
Front End Back-to-Back: (6-5)
Back End Back-to-Back: (6-5)
Goals Scored Per Game/Rank: 3.59 (3rd)
Goals Against Per Game/Rank: 2.83 (8th)

Additions: Colin Blackwell, Matt Dumba, Brendan Smith, Ilya Lyubushkin, Casey DeSmith
Subtractions: Joe Pavelski (retired), Chris Tanev, Ryan Suter, Jani Hakanpaa, Scott Wedgewood, Radek Faksa, Ty Dellandrea, Craig Smith

For the second consecutive season the Dallas Stars made their way to the Western Conference Finals only again to come up short, this time eliminated by the Edmonton Oilers in six games. The Stars finished first overall in the Western Conference, just one point behind the New York Rangers for the best regular season record in the NHL. Dallas is solid in goal, have arguably the best group of forwards in the NHL but may find themselves a little thin on the backend when the season starts.

Offense
The Stars 294 goals was third best in the NHL (and a franchise best) despite what many would consider a down season from their top line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski. In fact, the Stars didn’t have one player in the top 26 in the scoring race.

Joe Pavelski announced his retirement in the summer after 18 seasons and over 1300 regular season games. Even with the departure of Pavelski, the Stars return seven players with 20 goals or more. 2021 first round draft pick, Wyatt Johnston led Dallas in goals and points last season. The Stars continue to inject youth up front as both Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque are expected to play significant roles in what will be their first full seasons in the NHL.

Defense
While Dallas is deep up front the blueline group is thin after you get past Miro Heiskenen, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell. Dallas signed a trio of bottom pairing defenseman in veterans, Matt Dumba, Brendan Smith and Ilya Lubushkin to replace Ryan Suter (bought out), Chris Tanev and Jani Hakanpaa. Expect the Stars to bolster their blueline at the trade deadline to help them make another Stanley Cup run.

Goaltending
There is no debating that Jake Oettinger is currently one of the ten best goalies in the NHL, but consistency continues to be an issue for the Stars netminder when games matter most. He finished the regular season 24th in goals saved above expected. Oettinger was touched up for 10 goals and had a save percentage of less than 900 in the final three games of the Western Conference Final loss to the Oilers. Playing behind a defensive group that is not as good as the prior season, more will be needed from the Stars number one goalie. Casey DeSmith takes over the backup duties from Scott Wedgewood who was not re-signed.

Player to Watch – Jason Robertson
Robertson’s 80 points in 23-24 led the team but were 29 fewer than the season prior. His goal total dropped from 46 to 29 last season. He found the back of the net in just 4 of 19 playoff games, scoring six goals, three coming by way of a hat trick in Game 3 of the Western Conference Final. The Stars and Robertson are both hoping he can regain the form of two seasons ago when he cracked the 100-point mark. It was announced just prior to training camp that Robertson had foot surgery on July 31 and would miss most of the training camp. If he ends up missing games as well then 90+ points would seem more realistic.

Outlook
Dallas should once again challenge for top spot in the Central Division and if Jim Nill can find a way to upgrade his blueline before the trade deadline, the Stars will once again be Stanley Cup Contenders. DraftKings has the Stars as the second shortest shot on the board to win the Western Conference at +500. They are +1100 to win the Stanley Cup. I would consider a half unit on both future tickets.

Regular Season Point total: 103.5 (Over/Under -115)
To Make the Playoffs: -600
To Miss the Playoffs: +425
To Win the Central Division: +230
To Win the Western Conference: +500
To Win the Stanley Cup: +1100