New York Rangers 24-25 Season Preview

New York Rangers
Metropolitan Division

2023-24 Recap
Record (W-L-OTL): 55-23-4
Over/Under: 44-33-5
Home Favorite: 28-9
Home Dog: 1-1
Road Favorite: 14-10
Road Dog: 8-5
Win Score 4 or more: 36 of 55
Lose Give Up 4 or more: 25 of 27
Puck Line Wins: 34 of 55
Puck Line Losses: 19 of 27
Front End Back-to-Back: 6-6
Back End Back-to-Back: 11-1
Goals Scored Per Game/ Rank: 3.39 (7th)
Goals Against Per Game/ Rank: 2.76 (7th)

Additions: Reilly Smith, Sam Carrick
Subtractions: Blake Wheeler, Barclay Goodrow, Erik Gustafsson, Alex Wennberg, Jack Roslovic

President Trophy winners in 2023-24 the Rangers went into the playoffs as one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Strong down the middle, a Norris Trophy defenseman and one of the best goalies in the NHL in Igor Shesterkin. But once again, it was the inability of their best players to rise to the occasion when it mattered most. Of New York’s last seven playoff series losses when they were eliminated, the team has scored a combined seven goals. The Rangers will once again compete for top spot in the Metro Division and have the parts for a deep playoff run.

Offense
The Rangers finished seventh overall in goals scored but did most of the damage on the power play. The Blueshirts had the third best power play but ranked 19th in 5 on 5 scoring. Their 14 third period come from behind wins ranked number one in the NHL. New York had four players who finished in the top 50 in the NHL: scoring race. Only Tampa had more with five. Last season at 32 years of age, Artemi Panarin smashed both his previous career highs in goals (32) and points (96), racking up 49 goals and 120
points. You can attribute his spike in offense to a shot first mentality. His 303 shots on goal (a career high), was an increase of 99 shots from the previous season. Panarin has that rare ability to make players around him better.

The Rangers needed more from former first overall pick Alexis Lafreniere so they moved him on a line with Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. Lafreniere’s goal total increased from 16 to a career-high, 28 with 26 coming at even strength. His five game winning goals was second on the team. He continued his success into the playoffs scoring eight goals (tied for team lead). Trocheck finished the regular season with a career best 77 points and his eight goals and 20 points in the post season were the tops on the team. The Rangers hope they have solved their problem of who will join Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider on the top line, acquiring Reilly Smith from the Pittsburgh Penguins. Smith is coming off one of his least productive NHL seasons with just 13 goals and 40 points after scoring 26 goals for the Golden Knights in their Stanley Cup winning season.

There are questions surrounding the Rangers bottom six. Can Matt Rempe be more than a sideshow and play more than five minutes a night? It’s been five years since Kappo Kakko was drafted second overall. The Rangers signed him to a 1-year prove it deal. Injuries and inconsistent play have plagued him since being drafted. The biggest question surrounds center Filip Chytil who suffered his fourth concussion in the past seven years. Chytil missed most of the 2023-24 regular season and playoffs. For now, he slots in as the team’s third line center, but he has top six potential.

Defense
Like they do on offense, the Rangers struggle defensively five on five. New York gave up the seventh fewest goals overall but the 15th most at five on five. Of their 27 losses last season, 25 times they gave up four or more goals. Adam Fox has his name on the Norris Trophy and has finished in the top five in voting each of the past four seasons but that is more for his offensive prowess than his ability to shut down the opposition’s best players. K’Andre Miller is coming off a down season following the 2022-23 campaign but for me is a top four defenseman. Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider are solid defenders.

Questions abound surrounding Captain Jacob Trouba, the subject of trade rumors this past summer. It was a tough regular season and playoffs for Trouba in 2023-24 and he took advantage of his no-trade clause to block a move that would have sent him to Detroit. The Rangers need to find a way to improve defensively at even strength to help get themselves over the hump.

Goaltending
Igor Shesterkin enters the 2024-25 season in the final year of his contract and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was quoted this past summer, “I wouldn't be surprised if he’s going to be the number one paid goalie in the NHL.” Shesterkin almost single handedly beat the Florida Panthers in last season's Eastern Conference Final. Panthers coach Paul Maurice calling it,”One of the best performances by a goalie in the playoffs I have ever seen.” Shesterkin is one of the best goalies in the league, but it should be noted that his goals against average have gone up and his save percentage has gone down each of the past two seasons. While his numbers are still elite, they are heading in the wrong direction.

In Jonathan Quick, the Rangers have a three-time Stanley Cup champion and Conn Smythe winner backing up Shersterkin for a second consecutive season. Quick proved many pundits wrong (including me) who felt his best days were behind him. He won 18 of his 26 games and had two shutouts giving the Rangers one of the best goaltending tandems in the NHL.

Player to Watch – Alexis Lafreniere
The 2020 first overall pick is coming off a breakout season and don’t be surprised if he flirts with becoming close to a point a game player this season. DraftKings Sportsbook has his point total at 64.5 and I like the Over. Lafreniere’s continued development is important on a Rangers team with their top four point producing forwards last season all over 30.

Outlook
A trademark of Peter Laviolette coached teams is they have had a point drop off in his second full season of the teams he has coached. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Rangers Over/Under point total at 100.5, a significant drop from the 114 they finished with last season. In two of his five stops his teams have had a fall off 20+ points and his Islanders team finished with 13 fewer points in year two. I still believe the Rangers are a 100-point team, but I am not interested in playing the total or wagering on New York to win the Division where they are +250. Alexis Lafreniere point total Over (see above) is still my favorite Rangers play.

Regular Season Point Total: 100.5 (Over/Under -115)
To Make the Playoffs: -350
To Miss the Playoffs: +270
To Win the Metropolitan Division: +250
To Win the Eastern Conference: +650
To Win the Stanley Cup: +1300