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Canada vs United States: 2 Nations Facing-Off
Special for PuckPedia by Jonathan Davis, in partnership with Coolbet. This page contains affiliate links. Image © Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
Canada (-110,5.5) vs USA
February 20, 2024, 8 p.m. ET (Sportsnet, ESPN)
The anticipation for Thursday’s championship game between Canada and the USA is off the charts. Canada coach Jon Cooper said it best on Tuesday, "nothing’s done more for hockey in a decade than what this tournament’s done". Will we see three fights in the opening nine seconds on Thursday like we saw to start Thursday’s game in Montreal?
From Canada's Sam Bennett, "The messages were sent in the last game. This game is about winning".
Key Absences and Injury Replacements
Both teams will go into Thursday’s game missing a key element of their blueline. Canada has had to deal with the loss of Shea Theodore since the early minutes of their opening game and Team USA will be without Charlie McAvoy for a second consecutive game. On Tuesday, it was announced that McAvoy was admitted to a Boston hospital due to an infection. Quinn Hughes, who had to bow out of the tournament due to injury has been added to the roster and can only play on Thursday as an injury replacement to one of the current six available defensemen.
The expectation is that Matthew Tkachuk and Auston Matthews who missed the USA's final preliminary round game for precautionary reasons along with Brady Tkachuk who left after the first period are all expected to play on Thursday.
Breaking Down the Best Bets
Here is how I would attack this game from a betting perspective.
Let’s start with two prop bets that are a combined 12-0 in the tournament. We had a goal scored in the first 10 minutes and at least two goals scored in all six games. I see no reason that the two trends come to halt in the Championship game. I also like both teams to score in the first period. It happened in their first meeting on Thursday and all three USA games have seen both teams score in the opening 20 minutes.
I do believe we get at least two goals in the first period, and I wouldn’t be surprised if each team scored twice. With that said, I am more confident that we get five combined goals, but not as confident that we get to six goals between the two teams. I will bet the “alternate total” of five goals and play the Over. You do have a heavy tax on playing the Over five goals as you must wager $145 to win $100 but in my opinion at the very worst the game lands on five total goals and you get your money back.
On to the player prop bets. Tops on my list is Zach Werenski who is tied with Sidney Crosby atop the 4 Nations playoff scoring race with five points. All five of Werenski’s points have been assists and I will continue to grab the “plus money” on his assist prop. Nathan MacKinnon has 14 career goals against Connor Hellebuyck (and tied for the tournament lead with 3), Connor McDavid has 11, including the lone Canada goal in Thursday’s game against Team USA. I expect both stars to once again take advantage of their speed and skill and exploit a USA blueline that won’t have Charlie McAvoy.
Kyle Connor’s 8 goals is the most by any USA player against Jordan Binnington, but his role has diminished in the tournament so I am staying away from Connor and his props. Jack Eichel is next up with five goals. Jake Guentzel who scored against Binnington in Thursday’s game is tied for the tournament lead with three. Only Brady and Matthew Tkachuk (11 each) have more shots on goal than Guentzel (10).
For those of you on the fence on when it comes to betting on either Canada or the USA. Keep this in mind. The designated home team is 0-6 in the tournament. Team USA is considered the home team for the Championship game.
Best Bets:
- Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal +205 – ¼ unit
- Connor McDavid anytime goal +210 – ¼ unit
- Jake Guentzel anytime goal +295 – ¼ unit
- Canada/USA Over 5 (-145) – 2 units
- 1st period Over 1.5 (-109) – 1.5 units
- Goal 1st 10/Yes (-130) – 1.5 units
- 1st period BTTS (+210) – ¾ units
