Colorado Avalanche 24-25 Season Preview

Colorado Avalanche
Central Division

2023-24 Recap

Record (W-L-OTL): 50-25-7
Over/Under: 48-33-1
Home Favorite: 31-9
Home Dog: 0-0
Road Favorite: 15-12
Road Dog: 6-6
Win Score 4 or more: 40 of 50
Lose Give Up 4 or more 27 of 32
Puck Line Wins: 38 of 50
Puck Line Losses: 20 of 32
Front End Back-to-Back: 2-5
Back End Back-to-Back: 3-4
Goals Scored Per Game: 3.68 (1st)
Goals Against Per Game: 3.07 (16th)

Additions: Oliver Kylington, Parker Kelly, Erik Brannstrom, Calvin De Haan
Subtractions: Yakov Trenin, Zach Parise (retired), Andrew Cogliano (retired), Pavel Francouz (retired), Sean Walker, Jack Johnson, Brandon Duhaime

Last season the Avs failed to capture top spot in the Central Division for the first time in four seasons. Despite falling short of winning the Division they were one of four Western Conference teams to reach the 50-win mark. They will once again be Stanley Cup contenders when the puck drops in October.

Offense
No team found the back of the net more times than the 308 goals scored by the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs were led by Hart Trophy (league MVP) winner Nathan Mackinnon and his 51 goals and 140 points. Mackinnon’s impressive season included a 35-game home point streak which was the second longest behind the Great One, Wayne Gretzky’s record of 40. Mackinnon is so superstitious that he refused to clean both the inside and outside of his car during the streak.

He had a pair of 19 game point streaks and two four-goal games. He was the only player to crack the 400-shot mark (405 total), racking up, 4 games of 10+ shots and 20 games of 7 or more shots on goal. Impending UFA, Mikko Rantanen is coming off back-to-back 100-point seasons, and his 97 goals over that span leads the team. Over the past 4 seasons combined, only Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have put up more points than Mackinnon and Rantanen. Casey Mittlestadt (more on him below) who was acquired last season at the trade deadline centers the second line and Jonathan Drouin and his 19 goals returns for a second season. Drouin, a teammate of Nathan Mackinnon in juniors, put up more goals last season in Colorado than his final four seasons in Montreal combined.

Two unknowns heading into the season for the Avs up front will be, can Captain Gabe Landeskog return from his knee injury. When the season begins in October it will be over 800 days since he has played a game. The second is whether the Avs will give Val Nichuskin a third chance. Nichuskin has been suspended during the past two playoff runs for drug related issues. He is suspended for the first six months of the upcoming season and is currently the NHL Players Assistance program.

Defense
The Avs blueline is led by superstar, Cale Makar. At 25 years old his impressive list of accomplishments includes a Stanley Cup Championship, Conn Smythe Trophy, (playoff MVP), Rookie of the Year and has also won the Norris Trophy (league’s best defenseman). I will fight you if you try and make a case for a better all-around defenseman than Makar. Devon Toews, Samuel Girard and Josh Manson round out the top four.

With the Avs tight to the Salary Cap, GM Chris MacFarland did a great job of adding depth to the back end signing Oliver Kylington, Erik Brannstrom and Calvin DeHaan for a combined salary of less than three million dollars a year. Brannstrom, a former first round draft pick of the Golden Knights was the centerpiece in the deal that brought Mark Stone to Vegas from Ottawa. Kylington who battled mental health issues over parts of the past two seasons is looking for a fresh start in Colorado while DeHaan provides experience and depth to the bottom pair.

Goaltending
If you are not a Colorado Avalanche fan and even if you are it’s not likely that you knew that Alexander Georgiev led NHL goalies in wins last season. Despite a GAA of 3.02 and below average save percentage of .897, Georgiev’s 38 wins were the league best. The Avs were 16th in goals against but the number one offense was able to cover up for some off nights.

Georgiev is in the final year of his contract and Colorado would like to see the goalie who had 2.53 GAA and a .919 save percentage to go along with 40 wins the season prior in Denver. Justus Annunen returns for his second season as the backup. Annunen earned 17 of a possible 24 points for the Avs in his starts. A 928 save percentage, 2.25 GAA and 2 shutouts are above average production from a backup goalie.

Player to Watch - Casey Mittelstadt

The Avs acquisition of Casey Mittelstadt from the Buffalo Sabres for defenseman Bowen Byram at last season’s trade deadline filled the Avalanche’s need for a number two center. Colorado has been searching for a second line center since losing Nazem Kadri to free agency, the summer after winning the Stanley Cup. Mittelstadt’s 2.27 points per game at 5 on 5 last season, put him ahead of players like Matthew Tkachuk and Jason Robertson and allowed head coach Jared Bednar to split up Mackinnon and Rantanen if needed to spread out the scoring.

Outlook
The Avalanche are once again in the mix to challenge for the Stanley Cup. My criteria for picking a team to win the Cup is you must be strong down the middle and have a Norris trophy caliber defenseman. The Avalanche has both. Having an elite goaltender is no longer necessary.

History also tells us that you also must have a player that you drafted as one of the top two picks in the NHL Draft (14 of the last 16 Cup winners). The Avalanche has Nathan Mackinnon (1st overall-2013, Gabe Landeskog – 2nd overall-2011). DraftKings currently has Colorado at 13/1 to win the Stanley Cup. If Landeskog can return, that number disappears. If you like Colorado, a half unit play is worth grabbing.

Regular Season Point Total: 102.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
To Make the Playoffs: -525
To Miss the Playoffs: +380
To Win the Division: +260
To Win the Western Conference: +650
To Win the Stanley Cup: +1300