Edmonton Oilers 24-25 Season Preview

Edmonton Oilers
Pacific Division

2023-24 Recap
Record (W-L-OTL): 49-27-6
Over/Under: 37-42-3
Home Favorite: 26-12
Home Dog: 0-1
Road Favorite: 18-15
Road Dog: 3-4
Win Score 4 or more: 36 of 49
Lose Give Up 4 or more: 22 of 33
Puck Line Wins: 35 of 49
Puck Line Losses: 24 of 33
Front End Back-to-Back: 5-5
Back End Back-to-Back: 5-5
Goals Scored Per Game: 3.56 (4th)
Goals Against Per Game: 2.88 (10th)

Additions: Stan Bowman (GM), Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, Josh Brown
Subtractions: Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, Ryan McLeod, Sam Carrick, Warren Foegele, Jack
Campbell, Vincent Desharnais

Down three games to none in the Cup Final, the Oilers forced Game 7 but came up short 2-1 in the title decider. It’s the third consecutive season the Oilers fell to the eventual Stanley Cup winner. A 2-9-1 start to the season cost Jay Woodcroft his job as Head Coach. He was replaced by Kris Knoblauch, who coached Connor McDavid when he played for the Erie Otters in the Ontario Hockey League. Knoblauch helped change the attitude and mindset of the team as Edmonton ran off a league high 16-game win streak, from Dec. 21 – Jan. 27.

Offense
The Oilers boasted the 4th best offense and power play last season. Once again, Connor McDavid led the way with 132 points, Zach Hyman had 54 goals (7 game winners), and Leon Draisaitl had 21 goals on the man advantage. Edmonton’s projected top six forwards for the upcoming season all boast 30-goal seasons on their resume. The Oil are as strong as ever down the middle with McDavid, Draisaitl and Adam Henrique as their top three centers. One question that remains is the status of Evander Kane, who will start the season on LTIR following sports hernia surgery. How long Kane remains out of the lineup could further complicate the Oilers' roster moves amid potential cap constraints.

Defense
The Oilers saw their Goals Against drop from 3.12 to 2.88 this past season. The penalty kill was 15th best in the regular season but cranked it up a gear in the post season, ranking #1 with a 94.3% success rate. Even more impressive, Edmonton was only (-1) being a man down, giving up 4 power play goals and scoring 3 shorthanded markers. Evan Bouchard had a breakout season in 2023-24, more than doubling his point total from a season before from 40 to 82, and was one of just five defensemen to average more than a point in a game in the regular season. He carried that form over into the postseason, where the “Bouch Bomb” gained notoriety. Bouchard was third in playoff scoring behind teammates Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

The Oilers' top pairing of Bouchard and Ekholm is as good as any in the NHL, but I do have concerns beyond the top pair with the losses of Phillip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais. Darnell Nurse’s defensive deficiencies were further exposed in the post-season, and he's expected to be paired with Ty Emberson who comes over from San Jose this season with just 30 NHL games on his resume. Troy Stetcher and Brett Kulak round out the bottom pair. With the available cap space the Oilers have, look for GM Stan Bowman to go shopping for a top four defenseman in and around the deadline.

Goaltending
The Oilers' run to the Cup Final put the questions about Stuart Skinner in the rear-view mirror. Skinner gave up 2 goals or less in 13 of his 23 playoff games, and gave up 2 goals or less 14 times during the team’s 16 game win streak. Calvin Pickard's two-year, $2 million contract extension in the summer spelled the end of Jack Campbell in Edmonton. Campbell was bought out with 3-years remaining on his deal, and now finds himself on a league-minimum contract in Detroit.

Player to Watch – Connor McDavid
McJesus sits just 18 points shy of 1,000 for his career, and averages 1.5 points per game. At that pace, McDavid would reach the 1,000-point plateau on November 3 in Calgary: game 657 of his illustrious career. For comparison, Sidney Crosby needed 100 more games to reach 1,000 points. Wayne Gretzky accomplished the feat in 424 games, and holds the NHL record for fewest games to 1,000 points.

Outlook
It’s rare for a team in the Salary Cap era to earn a berth in the Cup final and be able to bring back virtually the entire roster, but the Oilers were able to do that as well as adding veterans Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner to an already potent offense. Edmonton is once again in position to challenge for the Stanley Cup and currently sit as the betting favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Regular Season Point Total: 108.5 (Over/Under -115)
To Make the Playoffs: -1400
To Miss the Playoffs: +800
To Win the Pacific Division: +100
To Win the Western Conference: +400
To Win the Stanley Cup: +850