New York Islanders 24-25 Season Preview

New York Islanders
Metropolitan Division

2023-24 Recap
Record (W-L-OTL): 39-27-16
Over/Under: 41-36-5
Home Favorite: 12-11
Home Dog: 9-7
Road Favorite: 7-6
Road Dog: 9-17
Win Score 4 or more: 24 of 39
Lose Give Up 4 or more: 30 of 43

Puck Line Wins: 18 of 39
Puck Line Losses: 24 of 43
Front End Back-to-Back: 5-5
Back End Back-to-Back: 1-9
Goals Scored Per Game: 2.99 (22nd)
Goals Against Per Game: 3.15 (18th)

Additions: Anthony Duclair, Maxim Tsyplakov, Matt Martin (PTO)
Subtractions: Cal Clutterbuck, Sebastian Aho, Robert Bortuzzo

It was a tale of two seasons for the Islanders in 2023-24. When Patrick Roy was hired the Isles had just 19 wins in their first 45 games and out of the playoffs. Under Roy the Isles played at a 100-point pace, going 20-12-5 and finishing third in the Metropolitan Division. In Roy’s first full season in Colorado, the Avs won 52 games, and Roy was named Coach of the Year.
I’m not projecting 52-wins for the Isles in 2024-25, but no reason why they shouldn’t be a playoff team once again.

Offense
The Islanders finished last season 22nd in scoring, tied with Dallas (40) for the most games decided by one goal, and tied with Boston (26) for the most games to go past 60 minutes. Do the math, and it tells you 31% of the Islanders games last season ended in a “coin flip”. In addition, their 16 overtime/shootout losses were tied with Montreal for the most in the league. Adding depth scoring depth was a focal point in the summer for GM Lou Lamoriello. He signed a pair of free agent forwards that will slide into their top six group. Anthony Duclair has had four seasons of 20+ goals and eclipsed 30 goals once, scoring 31 for the Florida Panthers (2021-22) and Maxim Tsyplakov comes over from the KHL following a career high 31 goal season.

Brock Nelson and Bo Horvat are each coming off their third consecutive seasons of 30 or more goals and Kyle Palmieri reached 30 goals for the second time in his career. Matthew Barzal had a career-high 23 goals and his second season averaging a point a game. There should be enough offense this season for the Islanders to move to at least the middle of the pack in league scoring. One forward group that will look different for the Islanders is their fourth line known as the “Identity Line”. The trio of Casey Cizikas, Matt Martin, and Cal Clutterbuck had played together for close to a decade. Both Martin and Clutterbuck were not offered contracts, though Martin will come to training camp on a PTO.

Defense
Noah Dobson had a breakout season in 23-24 finishing with a career-best 70 points and put himself in the Norris Trophy conversation. He also logged a team high and career high 24:31 minutes a night playing alongside Alexander Romanov on the team’s top pair. Injuries hit the Islanders blueline hard with three key members missing large chunks of the season. Their shutdown pair of Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock were limited to 58 games while Scott Mayfield played in just 41. The three were pillars of New York’s penalty kill, their absence for significant parts of the season helps to explain the Islanders finishing dead last in that category. I can’t remember a team finishing dead last on the PK and still making the playoffs. One bright spot defensively for the Isles is they gave up the 10th fewest goals when playing 5 on 5. There’s no question that a big focus in training and the pre-season will be improving the penalty kill.

Goaltending
A Vezina Trophy finalist in 2022-23, Ilya Sorokin followed that up in 2023-24 with his worst season statistically in his career. Sorokin’s struggles cost him his starting job in pivotal games in the final weeks of the regular season and into the playoffs. A healthy blueline and a full season under head coach Patrick Roy should benefit Sorokin in returning to form. The Islanders strength has always been in having two solid goaltenders and Semyon Varlamov won 14 games and the Isles earned 32 of a possible 54 points as the backup. The two goalies give the Islanders a chance to win every game.

Player to Watch - Maxim Tsyplakov
Tsyplakov comes to the Islanders after six seasons in the KHL. The 25 year-old free agent from Russia is coming off a career best 31 goals and the plan is to play Tsyplakov on the Islanders second line with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri. If he can come close to matching last season’s numbers from the KHL he will be a huge bargain at $950,000.

Outlook
The Islanders roster entering the season is good enough to make the playoffs but not built to make a deep playoff run. Barring a salary dump trade or a player going on Long Term Injury Reserve, the Isles don’t have the Cap space to add to their roster before the trade deadline. Isles fans looking to bet on something. Here are my top three plays in order of preference. Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
1. Bo Horvat Over 30.5 goals (-115)
2. Isles to make the Playoffs (-105)
3. Isles over 91.5 points (-115)

Regular Season Point Total: 91.5 (Over/Under -115)
To Make the Playoffs: -105
To Miss the Playoffs: -125
To Win the Metropolitan Division: +1200
To Win the Eastern Conference: +2200
To Win the Stanley Cup: +4500