Ottawa Senators 24-25 Season Preview

Ottawa Senators
Atlantic Division

2023-24 Recap

Record (W-L-OTL): 37-41-4
Over/Under: 41-38-3
Home Favorite: 13-8
Home Dog: 6-12
Road Favorite: 2-6
Road Dog: 15-18
Win Score 4 or more: 27 of 37
Lose Give Up 4 or more: 35 of 45
Puck Line Wins: 23 of 37
Puck Line Losses: 31 of 45
Front End Back-to-Back: 6-8
Back End Back-to-Back: 6-8
Goals Scored Per Game/ Rank: 3.05 (20th)
Goals Against Per Game/ Rank: 3.43 (28th)

Additions: Travis Green (Head Coach), Linus Ullmark, David Perron, Nick Jensen, Michael Amadio, Nick Cousins, Noah Gregor
Subtractions: Joonas Korpisalo, Dominik Kubalik, Jakob Chychrun, Mathieu Joseph, Erik Brannstrom, Parker Kelly

There is one word that easily describes the Ottawa Senators and it is “change”. In the past 12 months the Sens now have a new owner, General Manager and Head Coach. Team broadcaster, Dean Brown said it best when he was interviewed on NHL Network Radio in the summer, “change was needed…change should not be feared it should be expected.” Ottawa has gone seven seasons without getting a ticket to the playoffs. They went from six points out of a playoff spot two seasons ago to missing by a baker’s dozen, 13 points in 23-24, This team has playoff potential if they can make a greater commitment to team defense.

Offense
The Senators finished in the bottom third of the league in scoring and there are two factors that stand out for their struggles to find the back of the net. Despite having more powerplay opportunities than any other team, Ottawa finished 23rd with the man advantage. Factor number two lies in the fall off in production from Tim Stutzle. After registering 39 goals and 90 points two seasons ago, Stutzle fell to 18 goals and 70 points in 23-24 and just one powerplay goal after scoring 10 the previous season. A variety of injuries, including a banged-up wrist just four games into the season could have been a factor in his struggles.

On paper, the Sens have a solid top six group of forwards. It’s the bottom six that GM, Steve Staios felt needed some help. To that he added three veterans to the group who all have their names engraved on the Stanley Cup in David Perron, Michael Amadio and Nick Cousins. Head Coach, Travis Green spoke to the media this summer and shared his excitement about the signings, “We just felt that having people around that have done it... and it's not just in the games, it's your everyday approach to the game, your attention to detail, the importance of practice. Understanding the little things that it takes to win are sometimes the hardest things for younger players to grasp."

Defense
Ottawa ranked 28th in defense last season and 29th on the penalty kill. If the Senators want to have any chance of making the playoffs this season, they will need to make significant improvements to those parts of their game. Below average goaltending and the loss of defenseman Tomas Chabot for 31 games can partially explain why they struggled.

Two seasons after acquiring Jakob Chychrun at the deadline, Ottawa moved their leading point getter from the backend last season to Washington for Nick Jensen. In Jensen, Ottawa is getting a player who has played in the playoffs five of the last six seasons and is a “stay at home” blueliner that can play in Ottawa’s top four. He’s also an upgrade defensively over Chychrun who finished tied for the team’s worst plus/minus (-30). In just his second season, Jake Sanderson led Sens defenseman in time on ice, saw his goal total raise from four to ten and was second in points. Sanderson and Artem Zub make up the top pair. Jacob Bernard-Docker (117) and Tyler Kleven (17) with a combined 124 NHL games round out the six blueliners.

Goaltending
Ottawa’s .884 save percentage was tied for last in the NHL. One year after signing Joonas Korpisalo to a five-year, 20-million-dollar contract, Ottawa was able to escape from the deal and trade him to Boston for Linus Ullmark. Korpisalo finished with an .890 save percentage and a goals against average of 3.27. Ullmark now becomes the next goaltending savior for the Senators following the likes of Matt Murray, Cam Talbot and Korpisalo. A Vezina trophy winner in Boston, the Sens are counting on Ullmark to finally solve their goaltending woes.

The one constant for the Sens goaltending situation has been Anton Forsberg. Back for his fifth season in Ottawa, he too is looking to put the last season behind him. It was his first time in his career starting 25 games or more with a save percentage under .900. One side note. Ullmark and Forsberg, born eight months apart were teammates with Sweden’s Modo Junior team.

Player to Watch – Tim Stutzle

I am betting last season was an outlier for Tim Stutzle. Prior to his drop off last season his goals and point total had increased the previous two seasons. Stutzle for me is a player who should average over a point a game. DraftKings Sportsbook has his point total at 86.5 (-115) and I am inclined to play the Over.

Outlook
Ottawa is a better team on paper than they were at the end of last season. They should be good enough to play meaningful games in March and possibly into April. +125 to make the playoffs or -155 to miss the playoffs (DraftKings Sportsbook) is not enticing enough either way to make a wager.

Regular Season Point Total: 90.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
To Make the Playoffs: +125
To Miss the Playoffs: -155
To Win the Atlantic Division: +1100
To Win the Eastern Conference: +2000
To Win the Stanley Cup: +4000