Tampa Bay Lightning 24-25 Season Preview

Tampa Bay Lightning
Atlantic Division

2023-24 Recap
Record (W-L-OTL): 45-29-8
Over/Under: 39-37-6
Home Favorite: 19-12
Home Dog: 5-3
Road Favorite: 10-9
Road Dog: 7-12
Win Score 4 or more: 37of 45
Lose Give Up 4 or more: 29 of 37
Puck Line Wins: 34 of 45
Puck Line Losses: 26 of 37
Front End Back-to-Back: 4-6
Back End Back-to-Back: 5-5
Goals Scored Per Game/: 3.51 (5th)
Goals Against Per Game: 3.26 (23rd)

Additions: Jake Guentzel, Cam Atkinson, Ryan McDonagh, JJ Moser, Zemgus Girgensons
Subtractions: Steven Stamkos, Mikhail Sergachev, Tanner Jeannot, Auston Watson, Calvin de Haan, Anthony Duclair, Tyler Motte, Matt Dumba, Alex Barre Boulet

It’s not often that a Monday night game in late October is the most anticipated game of the season but that will be the case on October 28, when Steven Stamkos and the Nashville Predators come to town. After 16 seasons, Stamkos, Tampa’s franchise leader in goals and points, could not agree on financial terms for a new contract and now he heads to Music City as a member of the Nashville Predators.

The signing of Jake Guentzel, the trade bringing back Ryan McDonagh along with returning veterans Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and a healthy Andrei Vasilevskiy keep Tampa in position reach the playoffs for an 8th consecutive season. Look for Hedman to be wearing the “C” when the season opens.

Offense
The first thing you see when evaluating the Lightning’s offense is they scored 288 goals which was fifth best in the NHL. Second is that Nikita Kucherov had 144 points. Do the math and that means he either scored or assisted on 50% of the Lightning’s goals last season. Kucherov is the third player in NHL history to record 40 goals and 100 assists in a single season. Those are some crazy numbers. Tampa also finished with the number one power play in the league. Where they struggled on offense was 5on5 play. Tampa was 15 th in scoring when they didn’t have the man advantage. The signing of free agent Jake Guentzel should help their 5on5 scoring. Guentzel has scored 106 goals over the past three seasons with 83 of them coming at even strength.

Defense
At 33 years of age, Victor Hedman leads the group as he enters his 16 th season and still dominates at his position. His 63 assists last season was fourth among all blueliners. The 5on5 struggles also carried over to the defensive side of their game. The 190 goals Tampa gave up 5on5 was fifth worst in the NHL. They were the only team to finish in the bottom 10 of that category to make the playoffs. On the flip side, Tampa had the 5th best penalty killing group in the NHL.

To try and solve some of the defensive issues, GM Julien Brisebois traded back for Ryan McDonagh from Nashville just two seasons after the Lightning traded him to Predators for salary cap reasons. Two years after signing Mikhail Sergachev to an 8-year contract, the Bolts shipped him off to Utah. The moves are a bit confusing to say the least but in talking to people who cover the Lightning I get the sense that McDonagh makes the team better defensively and will be a strong presence in the room that will also fill the void left by Steven Stamkos. McDonagh will likely be paired with Eric Cernak giving the Lightning a solid top four on the backend. Nick Perbix and J.J. Moser (acquired in the Sergachev trade) round out the top six.

Goaltending
A goals against average just under three and a save percentage right at .900 would be a good season for a lot of goalies but not Andrei Vasilevskiy. Despite recording his seventh consecutive season with at least 30 wins it was the worst statistical season of his career. Off season back surgery kept him out of the lineup until November and he just never looked like what many considered to be the best goalie in the NHL. Vasilevskiy turned 30 in July and is just seven wins shy of 300 for his career. I believe a bounce back season is in the offing for Vasilevskiy who should benefit from a longer off-season. Jonas Johansson is slated to be the backup. Johansson was credited with 12 wins in 24 starts largely in part to the Lightning being able to outscore the opposition.

Player to Watch – Jake Guentzel
Being the guy that effectively is Steven Stamkos’ replacement along with signing a 7 year $63-million contract definitely puts the spotlight on you. Entering his 9th season, Guentzel has had two 40 goal seasons and four seasons of 30 goals or more. His ability to dominate 5on5 can’t be overlooked. Seventy eight percent of his goals the past three seasons have come at even strength and before you say he benefited from playing with Sidney Crosby he carried that dominance when he was traded Carolina. The Canes outscored the opposition five-on-five with Guentzel on the ice, 14-4. Now Guentzel gets the opportunity to play with one of the best playmakers in the game, Nikita Kucherov. Look for Guentzel to register his third 40 goal season.

Outlook
The Lightning are coming off back-to-back first round losses after winning 11 of their past 12 playoff series. With a healthy Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa still has the weapons to make a deep run. Vasilevskiy at 12/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook) to win the Vezina Trophy is worth a shot.

Regular Season Point Total: 98.5 (Over/Under-115)
To Make the Playoffs: -230
To Miss the Playoffs: +185
To Win the Atlantic Division: +550
To Win the Eastern Conference: +1200
To Win the Stanley Cup: +2500