Toronto Maple Leafs 24-25 Season Preview

Toronto Maple Leafs
Atlantic Division

2023-24 Recap
Record (W-L-OTL): 46-26-10
Over/Under: 45-35-2
Home Favorite: 20-13
Home Dog: 3-2
Road Favorite: 16-10
Road Dog: 4-6
Win Score 4 or more: 35 of 46
Lose Give Up 4 or more: 28 of 36
Puck Line Wins: 26 of 46
Puck Line Losses: 22 of 36
Front End Back-to-Back: 5-7
Back End Back-to-Back: 6-6
Goals Scored Per Game: 3.63 (2nd)
Goals Against Per Game: 3.18 (21st)

Additions: Craig Berube (Head Coach), Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Chris Tanev, Anthony Stolarz, Max Pacioretty (PTO)
Departures: Sheldon Keefe (Head Coach), Ilya Samsonov, TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano, John Klingberg, Ilya Lubushkin, Noah Gregor, Tyler Bertuzzi, Joel Edmundson

It was more rinse and repeat for Maple Leafs fans. A strong regular season ends in playoff misery. For the sixth consecutive season the vaunted Toronto offense was held to two goals or less in a playoff elimination game. Five of those games they were held to one goal or less including last season’s 2-1 loss to Boston in Game 7. The front office felt change was needed. Craig Berube takes over as head coach from Sheldon Keefe and Auston Matthews takes over as the Maple Leafs Captain from John Tavares. Matthews becomes the first US born Captain of the Maple Leafs and the 26th Captain in team history.

Offense
Only Colorado’s 302 goals scored was more than the 298 by the Leafs. Auston Matthews chase of 70 goals fell one shy as he was held goalless in the final two games. It marked the second time in the past three seasons that Matthews has scored 60 or more goals. One of the big questions facing new head coach, Craig Berube is how he spreads out the scoring. Will Matthews and Marner be reunited? Will Max Domi and Matthews stay together, or would the Leafs be better off with Matthews, Domi and Tavares all centering their own lines? Regardless of the deployment, expect the Leafs to play a more physical brand of hockey, a trademark of their new head coach. Officially the Leafs are bringing in Max Pacioretty to training camp on a PTO but sources close to the player tell me, he has agreed to a contract.

Defense
One year after surrendering the seventh fewest goals in the league the Leafs dropped all the way to 21st overall. Part of that could be attributed to the 13 different defenseman that saw playing time. Among playoff teams, only Tampa (14) had more defensemen see playing time than Toronto. The Leafs dipped into the free agent market to help rebuild their backend by signing Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to multi-year contracts. Tanev turns 35 in December and has played a full 82 game season just once in his 14-year career. Look for Tanev to join Morgan Relly as the team’s top pair.

I do wonder if Toronto would consider a load management approach to Tanev to better insure his availability for the playoffs. At 33 years of age, Ekman-Larsson is coming off winning a Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers where he put up his best offensive numbers in five seasons. Simon Beniot and Jake McCabe provide the physical presence on the blueline that fits the style of play of head coach, Craig Berube. Both players are likely to also get time killing penalties.

Goaltending
The Leafs will go with a goaltending tandem of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz this season. Despite just 38 NHL games on his resume Toronto signed the 25-year-old Woll to a three-year extension at just shy of $11 million.

Goaltending experts have shared with me over the past few seasons that Woll is the best goalie in the organization. Now it’s his time to prove it. The question remains is can he handle the workload. Woll has dealt with injuries throughout his brief NHL career including last season, missing 3 months with a high ankle sprain and suffered an injury in Game 6 of the opening round of the playoffs that forced him to miss Game 7 versus the Bruins. He topped out at 37 games at Boston College, 32 with the Marlies (AHL) and last season, his first full season with the Maple Leafs he started 23 games and came off the bench for two more. The hope would be for Woll to start somewhere between 40-50 games. Anthony Stolarz will serve as the number two goalie, coming off an impressive season in Florida where he had 16 wins, a goals against average of 2.03 and a save percentage of .925. Matt Murray was signed as insurance if either goalie gets injured. He will start the season in the American Hockey League.

Player to Watch – Mitch Marner
Marner is entering the final year of his contract before becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent. He will more than ever be under the spotlight in a media and social media crazed hockey market. Can he simply tune it out or will it affect his play on the ice? If past performance in the playoffs, when the stakes are higher are any indication, this could be a tough season for the Toronto native.

Outlook
The Leafs should finish as one of the top three teams in the Atlantic Division but that’s nothing more than a participation medal if it doesn’t come with a deep playoff run. Toronto has one playoff series win in eight years. Until the Leafs top players instill in themselves the attitude of hating to lose more than they like to win it will be another season of disappointment for the Maple Leafs and their fans.

Regular Season Point Total: 102.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
To Make the Playoffs: -475
To Miss the Playoffs: +350
To Win the Atlantic Division: +270
To Win the Eastern Conference: +650
To Win the Stanley Cup: +1300