Winnipeg Jets 24-25 Season Preview

Winnipeg Jets
Central Division

2023-24 Recap
Record (W-L-OTL): 52-24-6
Over/Under: 34-39-9
Home Favorite: 25-8
Home Dog: 1-5
Road Favorite: 15-8
Road Dog: 8-7
Win Score 4 or more: 34 of 52
Lose Give Up 4 or more: 16 of 30
Puck Line Wins: 38 of 52
Puck Line Losses: 19 of 30
Front End Back-to-Back: 5-3
Back End Back-to-Back: 6-2
Goals Scored Per Game: 3.16 (15th)
Goals Against Per Game: 2.41 (2nd)

Additions: Kaapo Kahkonen, Eric Comrie, Mason Shaw, Jaret Anderson-Dolan
Subtractions: Tyler Toffoli, Sean Monahan, Brendan Dillion, Nate Schmidt, Laurent Brossoit

It has been an off-season of change in Winnipeg, and it starts from behind the bench where Scott Arniel takes over as head coach with Rick Bowness announcing his retirement. There was a great deal of optimism in Winnipeg heading into last season’s playoffs. The Jets had improved by 15 points from the season prior and had dominated their first-round opponent, the Colorado Avalanche in the regular season. But the post season is a totally different animal, and the Jets were taken out by Colorado in five games.

Offense
Winnipeg was in the middle of the pack last season in goals scored, finishing 15th but were 7th at 5 on 5 outscoring the opposition by 58 goals. Mark Scheifele’s 72 points led the team but that was only good enough for 46 th in the league scoring race. Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Gabe Vilardi comprise the team’s top line with Vilardi being the only one of the trio without a 30 goal season. Nikolaj Ehlers and Cole Perfetti provide the goal scoring on the second line but the long-term future of Ehlers (impending UFA) in Winnipeg is in question. Trade deadline acquisitions, Tyler Toffoli and Sean Monahan took their talents elsewhere for the upcoming season, weakening the team’s forward depth.

Defense
The Jets went through a stretch from late November until the third week of January where they gave up 2 goals or less in 23 of 24 games (24 straight if you only include regulation). Dylan Demelo and Josh Morrissey hold down the top pairing. Last season the pair had a combined plus/minus rating of +76. Morrissey put up double-digit goals for the third consecutive season. The departure of Brenden Dillon and to a lesser extent, Nate Schmidt will challenge the blueline depth. Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg, Ville Heinola and Colin Miller round out the group. I would expect General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff to upgrade the blueline by the trade deadline.

Goaltending
For the second time since the 2020 season, Connor Hellebuyck is coming off a season as the Vezina Trophy winner (best goalie regular season). Hellebuyck finished the 23-24 season, second in wins (37) and shutouts (5). The issue for the Jets top netminder is taking his regular season success into the playoffs. In last year’s playoffs, the Avalanche touched him up for 24 goals in their 5-game series (5.23 GAA, .870 Save Percentage). In his last 10 playoff games he has given up at least four goals 8 times and five or more, seven times.

For the fourth consecutive season, Hellebuyck will have a new backup as Kaapo Kahkonen comes over from the New Jersey Devils after starting last season in San Jose.

Player to Watch – Nikolaj Ehlers
The seven-time 20 goal scorer is an Unrestricted Free Agent at the end of this season, is in the final year of his deal that pays him six million dollars. If the Jets find themselves on the outside looking in around the trade deadline, the Ehlers trade talk will intensify. If the Jets put Ehlers on the trade block he would undoubtedly bring a healthy return.

Outlook
The Jets are not as strong on paper as they were a year ago as they have lost key pieces from their forward group, blueline and backup goalie. I look at Winnipeg being a team that challenges for a wild card spot as opposed to one of the top three in the Central Division. Last season the Jets had 110 points. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Jets point total at 95.5 for 2024-25. I would be willing to play under. Interestingly, two seasons ago, the Jets finished with 95 points.

Regular Season Point Total: 95.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
To Make the Playoffs: -200
To Miss the Playoffs: +160
To Win the Central Division: +700
To Win the Western Conference: +1100
To Win the Stanley Cup: +2500